FROM WND
Aaron Klein weighs pros and cons of strike during opposition protests
By Aaron Klein
 Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei |
JERUSALEM – With the Tehran regime distracted by growing opposition protests, is now a good time for Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear sites?
Iran is defying the international community and thumbing its nose at President Obama’s proposed dialogue over the nuclear issue. Israeli intelligence is warning it could be a matter of months – not years – before Iran has enough uranium that, if enriched more, could produce one or two nuclear devices. With time swiftly running out, should Israel use the opportunity of the current drama in Iran to attack the country with the goal of setting back its nuclear program?
Here are a few pros and cons of an Israeli strike on Iran during opposition protests there:
- Pro: The possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities has so thoroughly penetrated the news cycle and international political discourse the past few years, it’s probably the most talked about “secret” military strike in recent history. That coupled with the massive operation required to hit Iran’s dozen or so nuke sites, some underground, makes a surprise Israeli raid on Iran a near impossibility, much unlike the Jewish state’s strikes in 2007 against Syria’s lone nascent reactor or its surprise raid of Iraq’s singular plant in 1981. With Iran focused on quelling the opposition protests, now may be a good time to take that regime by surprise.
- Pro: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as well as the country’s police and other security forces, like the Basij plainclothes militia, are so involved in quelling street protests they may not be ready militarily to immediately respond to an Israeli military raid.
Surely, Iran’s nuclear sites are still well protected. Iran has built a dense aerial-defense system that will make it difficult at just about any time for Israeli planes to reach their targets without encountering some resistance. Some layers of resistance Israel can expect will come from the batteries of Hawk, SA-5 and SA-2 surface-to-air missiles, plus SA-7, SA-15, Rapier, Crotale and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles protecting the sites.
But those stations are manned by the same units whose leadership now is involved in fighting the opposition protests. Iran also has about 1,700 anti-aircraft guns protecting the nuclear facilities in addition to 158 combat aircraft that would need to be deployed by the currently bogged-down Revolutionary Guard commanders.
- Pro: For Israel, the sooner an attack occurs, the better. Every day Iran is not confronted provides Tehran another 24 hours with which its nuclear scientists can work to furiously assemble the ingredients necessary for a nuclear weapon.
- Con: An Israeli airstrike would surely bring the opposition protests to a screeching halt and likely would be used by the ruling mullahs to unite the country against Israel. As it stands, the riots in Iran overtly oppose the recent election results but are not openly protesting the country’s Islamic theocratic dictators, specifically the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Still, there are anti-ayatollah undertones. All this would end as soon as the first Israeli missile reaches its target, allowing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to solidify his rule under a national emergency scenario and granting a blank check to Khamenei.
Israel, however, does need to weigh this con against its belief that opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi is not much different ideologically from Ahmadinejad. Mousavi was prime minister from 1981 to 1989 – after the Islamic revolution. During Mousavi’s term, his country exported terrorism worldwide and started the initial foundations of what became the Iranian nuclear program.
- Con: President Obama’s administration would likely be furious at Israel and could retaliate diplomatically. Obama has been touting his policy of direct negotiations as the solution to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Obama wants the opportunity to test his engagement strategy. If Israel strikes before Obama’s opening talks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could expect a very upset White House.
Still, it seems Obama is unlikely to support an Israeli strike at any time in the near future. Israel may want to cut its losses and at least attack during a time it would have some element of surprise. Also, Israeli officials are quietly nervous Obama’s diplomacy could be dragged on for a long period, granting the Iranians a much-needed smokescreen to put together nuclear weapons.
- Con: International condemnation. The world community, particularly Britain, which seems heavily invested in the opposition protests, will blame Israel for putting an end to any hopes of “reform” in Iran, even if opposition leaders are not exactly real reformists. International condemnation could take the form of boycotts of the Jewish state; anti-Israel U.N. resolutions, etc. Israel, however, needs to weigh all this against the likelihood of condemnation sure to come its way whenever Israel carried out an attack against Iran, whether now or in years to come.
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Hello blogger,
I hope you will consider;
Here again we are witness to religious fanaticism, just on the other end of so call “Christian” fanaticism.
In the American society of Christian fanaticism, people are allowed, even encouraged by corporately controlled media to make poor choices for themselves, i.e: Alcohol and other drugs (both licit and illicit) Consumerism, Gaming, Addiction to sexual perversion, ie. Child porn, and a host of other atrocities.
However, within countries such as Iran, their religious fanatics are working to protect their people from these atrocities, and the corporate takeover, of not only their resources such as oil, but the corporate takeover of consumer driven medias.
I wish I could say I blame the Imams for trying to protect their children from western influence, but I can not, in good conscious do so, as U.S. corporatism has caused the U.S. to become a cesspool just in my 52 years here.
Within the corporately controlled western medias here in the UNITED STATES of AMERICA (is a corporation rather than a country) we see falsified evidence that Mr. Ahmadinejad made the statement regarding the “people” of Israel as a whole.
It appears that what the corporate medias had done was to take sound bites from his, now famous speech to create just what they needed to give themselves permission to intervene in order to confiscate Iranian oil reserves, just as they had done in Iraq, using our children to do their dirty work.
Corporate Western Medias have convinced most of its people that Israel is not the aggressor. I have discovered further possible evidence that those who control the nation of Israel have always been the murderous aggressor.
“The Israelites have ravaged this land (Palestine) through plunder and murder, they have killed their friends with whom they had drunk wine, and they have deceived and misled their fellow believers of the Jewish cult, who are truly not Israelites but merely believers in a cult.
Thus the Israelites betrayed their own friends and murdered them because of their greed, but it shall likewise be done to them by the rightful owners of this land whom they have deprived of their rights and subjugated since ancient times.” –
Excerpt from The Talmud of Jmmanuel, the gospel of The Christ manifestation on earth that the Pharisees do not wish for us to read, is even banned in some countries.
But why is this faction being allowed to create such bellicose behavior around the world? Is it really about greed or power? Or is it part of a perfect plan, they are the catalyst to restore the service-to-others orientation within the soul of humanity?
If we do not read to understand material outside of the control matrix, we then have nothing to stand on but more of our own speculations based on the disinformation created by the controlled medias.
I will not be returning to this post. Therefore, if you have comment regarding mine, please use the Contact Us on my website.
If you are participating in the Iranian Riots or know someone who is and wish to remain safe? Let me help by showing you how to distinguish between those who are angry and those who are lethal. http://www.aggressionmanagement.com/Riots-in-Iran.htm